Search results for "Bayesian [statistical analysis]"
showing 10 items of 299 documents
Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models
2011
Abstract This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection crite…
A CNN Adaptive Model to Estimate PM10 Monitoring
2006
In this work we introduce a model for studying the distribution and control of atmospheric pollution from PM10. The model is based on the use of a cellular neural network (CNN) and more precisely on the integration of the mass-balance equation; at the same time it simulates the scenario regarding a planar grid describing the whole studied area (the city of Palermo) by means of a CNN and a set of Bayesian networks. The CNN allows us to define a grid system whose dynamic evolution is a redefinition of the diffusion equation that considers contributions coming from near cells for each element of the grid. Dynamics of each cell is influenced by meteorological effects and by parameters related t…
Bayesian Modelling of Confusability of Phoneme-Grapheme Connections
2007
Deficiencies in the ability to map letters to sounds are currently considered to be the most likely early signs of dyslexia. This has motivated the use of Literate, a computer game for training this skill, in several Finnish schools and households as a tool in the early prevention of reading disability. In this paper, we present a Bayesian model that uses a student's performance in a game like Literate to infer which phoneme-grapheme connections student currently confuses with each other. This information can be used to adapt the game to a particular student's skills as well as to provide information about the student's learning progress to their parents and teachers. We apply our model to …
Batch Methods for Resolution Enhancement of TIR Image Sequences
2015
Thermal infrared (TIR) time series are exploited by many methods based on Earth observation (EO), for such applications as agriculture, forest management, and meteorology. However, due to physical limitations, data acquired by a single sensor are often unsatisfactory in terms of spatial or temporal resolution. This issue can be tackled by using remotely sensed data acquired by multiple sensors with complementary features. When nonreal-time functioning or at least near real-time functioning is admitted, the measurements can be profitably fed to a sequential Bayesian algorithm, which allows to account for the correlation embedded in the successive acquisitions. In this work, we focus on appli…
Revisiting the Epipalaeolithic-Neolithic Transition in the Extreme NW of Africa : The Latest Results of the Chronological Sequence of the Cave of Kaf…
2021
[EN] This study focuses on the chronostratigraphic sequence of the Cave of Kaf Taht el-Ghar (Dar Ben Karrich, Tétouan, Morocco) excavated in 2012 in the framework of the AGRIWESTMED research project. The broad sequence reveals a series of occupations ranging from the Pleistocene (Moroccan Aterian) to recent historical times. Our research identifies a rich Early Neolithic phase (sixth millennium cal BC) containing the earliest pottery and domesticated animal and plant remains in the western Maghreb. However, this Early Neolithic level is not an immediate successor of the last traces of the Epipalaeolithic hunter-gatherer occupation, which started at the end of the Younger Dryas (10,900–9700 …
Benefits of a dance group intervention on institutionalized elder people: A Bayesian network approach
2018
[EN] The present study aims to explore the effects of an adapted classical dance intervention on the psychological and functional status of institutionalized elder people using a Bayesian network. All participants were assessed at baseline and after the 9 weeks period of the intervention. Measures included balance and gait, psychological well-being, depression, and emotional distress. According to the Bayesian network obtained, the dance intervention increased the likelihood of presenting better psychological well-being, balance, and gait. Besides, it also decreased the probabilities of presenting emotional distress and depression. These findings demonstrate that dancing has functional and …
Assessment of the impacts of an oil spill on the populations of common guillemot (Uria aalge) and long-tailed duck (Clangula hyemalis) - an expert kn…
2012
The amount of operated oil transports continues to increase in the Gulf of Finland and in the case of an accident hazardous amounts of oil may be spilled into the sea. The oil accident may be harmful for the common guillemot and long-tailed duck populations. In this study expert knowledge regarding the behaviour and population dynamics of common guillemot and long-tailed duck in the Gulf of Finland was used to build a model to assess the impacts of an oil spill on the mortality and population size of these species. The Bayesian networks were used in the modelling. Based on the results the breeding colony of guillemots in Aspskär may survive in the consequence of recolonization. In conclusio…
Bayesian Markov switching models for the early detection of influenza epidemics
2008
The early detection of outbreaks of diseases is one of the most challenging objectives of epidemiological surveillance systems. In this paper, a Markov switching model is introduced to determine the epidemic and non-epidemic periods from influenza surveillance data: the process of differenced incidence rates is modelled either with a first-order autoregressive process or with a Gaussian white-noise process depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or in a non-epidemic phase. The transition between phases of the disease is modelled as a Markovian process. Bayesian inference is carried out on the former model to detect influenza epidemics at the very moment of their onset. Moreover, t…
Recent statistical advances and applications of species distribution modeling
2019
En el mundo en que vivimos, producimos aproximadamente 2.5 quintillones de bytes de datos por día. Esta enorme cantidad de datos proviene de las redes sociales, Internet, satélites, etc. Todos estos datos, que se pueden registrar en el tiempo o en el espacio, son información que puede ayudarnos a comprender la propagación de una enfermedad, el movimiento de especies o el cambio climático. El uso de modelos estadísticos complejos ha aumentado recientemente en el contexto del estudio de la distribución de especies. Esta complejidad ha hecho que los procesos inferenciales y predictivos sean difíciles de realizar. El enfoque bayesiano se ha convertido en una buena opción para lidiar con estos m…
Fast Fingerprints Classification Only Using the Directional Image
2007
The classification phase is an important step of an automatic fingerprint identification system, where the goal is to restrict only to a subset of the whole database the search time. The proposed system classifies fingerprint images in four classes using only directional image information. This approach, unlike the literature approaches, uses the acquired fingerprint image without enhancement phases application. The system extracts only directional image and uses three concurrent decisional modules to classify the fingerprint. The proposed system has a high classification speed and a very low computational cost. The experimental results show a classification rate of 87.27%.